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Major World Economic Trends and Kazakhstan’s Anti-Crisis Strategy

The world economy, according to the latest estimates, has greatly slowed its pace of growth, which is significantly below expectations.

Лейла Музапарова(1)

In June 2015, the World Bank published its data on global growth in 2014, which it estimated to be only 2.6 percent, while the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) data from its April 2015 World Economic Outlook showed growth to be 3.4 percent. These both testify to the sharp slowdown of global development and to the excessively optimistic current expectations of international organisations.

World economic dynamics show that in major developed economies – the U.S. and the Eurozone – growth until recently had not been accelerating as had been forecast by the international organisations, but rather is stagnating at a low level (as in the Eurozone) or slowing down to values significantly lower than expected (as in the U.S.).

Forecasts by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISI) under the President of Kazakhstan suggest that the growth rates of the leading advanced economies in 2015-2017 will be significantly below those which currently appear in the forecasts by the IMF, the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

During the considered-time horizon, it is possible as well to expect phenomena significant for the world economy, such as stagnation in the financial markets, change in the rhetoric of the United States Federal Reserve System (FRS) towards new mitigation of the monetary policy, depreciation of the dollar, growth of the price of oil in 2016-2017 and nearing of growth rates in the economies of the Eurozone and Japan to zero levels with a subsequent slide into recession by 2017.

In 2016-2017, global factors will have a rather negative impact on developing economies as slowing growth and restricted demand in developed countries will put pressure on export and manufacturing and the stagnating environment of the commodity markets does not favour high growth rates for commodity-based economies. Thus, there remains a probability of further expansion of the global financial crisis, which hits emerging markets the strongest.

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